Belinda Hotz

The Arctic sea ice declines with a shift to younger ice due to the global warming. That affects not only the indigenous people and the Arctic mammals but also the other human interests as shipping. Due to a smaller sea ice extent in the summer, vessels can navigate through the Arctic, which has an impact on the environment of the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice and global warming

The Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land. Due to this fact, the expansion of winter sea ice in the Arctic is limited by land. The Arctic sea ice, which is driven by the wind, circulates within the central Arctic basin. A part of the sea ice survives the summer melt season and builds multi-year ice. [3] Glaciers, icebergs and ice shelves are not considered as sea ice, because the original ice is not built in the ocean. The Arctic sea ice is of utmost importance to the marine mammals and birds as it is their habitat. Moreover, it has a significant impact on regulating the climate. The polar oceans are regulated in exchanges of heat, moisture and salinity by sea ice. [1]

The Arctic surface air temperature has increased faster than the global average due to the amplified warming from the feedbacks of the loss of sea ice and snow cover. Sea ice reflects, as a result of the higher albedo of ice and snow, a greater part of the solar radiation back in space than the ocean water. In conclusion of the loss of sea ice, there is a rise in the amount of absorbed solar energy, which is leading to more warming. [2] In addition, the Arctic sea ice is showing a shift to younger ice. Since 1979, approximately 90% of the Arctic sea ice has declined, which is at least 5 years old, and the Arctic sea ice has thinned thought volume reductions. The half of the observed sea ice loss is assignable to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations even though there is an uncertainty in the sea ice sensitivity (ice extent loss per unit of warming). The distribution of the sea ice age is shown in Figure 1. It shows again the shift to the younger ice and a smaller extent. [3]

Figure 1: Sea ice age in the Arctic of late March 1990 and 2016 shows a shift to younger ice. [11]

Satellite records are indicating a decline of the Arctic sea ice extent since at least the early 1950s [1]. The trends of the Arctic sea surface temperature and the trends of the sea ice concentration are shown in figure 2. It shows an increasing trend of the temperature in March and September in the different simulations. The sea ice extent trend shows smaller maxima in March and smaller minima in September. It is even possible that the Arctic is ice free in September. There is a possibility that the Arctic may become ice free during the summer, but there is an uncertainty of approximately 20 years for the timing of a seasonally ice-free surface. However, there is a relation between the summer sea ice extent and the cumulative CO2 emissions. [3] The resulting increase in the global mean temperature and wind patterns have been the main drivers of the decline of the Arctic sea ice seeing that less sea ice is built during wintertime and a higher melting rate during the summer. [1]

Figure 2: Maps of linear trends of Arctic sea surface temperature (SST) and the linear trends of sea ice concentration for 1982−2017 in March and September. [12]

Human activities and biological habitats are affected by the seasonal sea ice extent in the Arctic. Ships are navigated through the Arctic in the summer due to the smaller sea ice extent. [1] Besides, Arctic mammals like seals, walruses and polar bears depend on the sea ice for their habitat because they hunt, feed and breed on the ice. Furthermore, marine resources in the Arctic region are important for many indigenous residents, since they depend on it as a source for food, clothing, equipment. [4] The marine primary production could change due to climate-induced changes in seasonal sea ice extent and thickness and ocean stratification, which has impacts on the ecosystems with a regional or local variability. Changes in the primary production have affected not only the regional species and the spatial distribution but also abundance of many marine species, which encounter the whole ecosystem structure. [3]

Arctic shipping routes

Arctic shipping routes are marine paths used by ships to get through the Arctic. These paths are lucrative due to the shorter navigational distance between Europe and Asia which is saving 40% of fuel and reducing the CO2 emissions. The Northern Sea route from Asia to Europe is with 8’500 miles 10 days shorter than the southern route through the Suez Canal between Asia and Africa with 13’000 miles [6].

The passability of these routes depends on the area covered by sea ice. The fluctuation of the expanse of the sea ice extent determines the time windows during which vessels can pass through. [5] As a result of the reduction of the sea ice extent, the navigability through the Arctic has increased because of a higher number of navigable days. Therefore, the shipping activity during the summertime has increased as well over the past two decades [3]. It is even possible that inaccessible paths may open due to a smaller sea ice extent. The Arctic shipping paths from now and the future are shown in Figure 3. [8]

Figure 3: Arctic shipping routes. The North-West passage (green), the Northern Sea Route (red) and the Future Central Arctic Shipping Route (blue) [13]

Serious ecological damage in the Arctic will be caused by an increase of human activities. The Arctic is still poorly charted. As a result, the increase in shipping activity could cause more groundings or other incidents in the Arctic. A possible avoidance of the risk is the reduction of heavy fuel oil in the shipping community. Besides non ice-class vessels should have a minimum hull strength to prevent accidents and spills, which could have horrendous ecological consequences. Such accidents could cause an enormous spill of fuel. Therefore, there is a higher risk of damaging the unique and sensitive ecosystem irreparably. Furthermore, Arctic shipping will lead to more black carbon deposits on the ice and snow, which will contribute to further a climate change. [7] In addition, the total CO2 emissions in the Arctic will rise due to more ships in the Arctic water. In 2018, ice-breaking oil and gas tankers were responsible for 33 percent of the carbon emissions in this area even though they made up just six percent of all ships, which means they have a high carbon footprint. [6]

The tragedy of the shorter shipping way

Shipping has a large impact on the environment due to atmospheric pollution, wildlife collisions, sound pollution, oil spills and ballast water [9]. In such a unique and sensitive environment as the Arctic, which is already dealing with the global warming as a consequence of sea ice and snow cover loss, these impacts could cause an enormous harm. The Arctic was one of the last places on Earth where human development and utilisation was limited. The rising shipping activities in the Arctic due to the declining sea ice extent are changing this fact. One of the main questions is, how will we proceed? Do we rush in as fast as we have everywhere else in the world or do we reconsider our intentions and find an sustainable development there? The Arctic marine environment presents an exceptional challenge. It needs a great cooperation among the different stakeholders and their interest to find a trade-off for the protection of Arctic people and the marine environment. [10] A spokesperson of Greenpeace once said:

“The Arctic has already exceeded the Paris agreement’s aspiration of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and the agreed target of 2°C. So now, ironically, we can deliver fossil fuels more quickly. It’s like a heavy smoker using his tracheotomy to smoke two cigarettes at once.” [7]

I think this quote describes an important part of the discussion. For our target to reduce and stop the climate change I understand the consideration of these routes, but it is ironic that with Arctic shipping, which could be a great risk not only for the environment but also for the climate and the ships itself, needs less fuel due to the shorter way. The Arctic region already deals with the climate change since a longer time. In conclusion, it is important for which reason the Arctic shipping is increased and how the risk for the adapting and sensitive environment could be minimized.

References:

[1] NSIDC (2019, October 11). SOTC: Sea Ice. accessed from: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html [state: 2020, April 03]

[2] Wikipedia (2009, February). Ice–albedo feedback (updated on: 2020, February 10). accessed from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback [state: 2020, April 04]

[3] IPCC (2019). IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Polar regions. accessed from: https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ [state: 2020, April 01]

[4] Transport & Environment (n.d). Arctic shipping. accessed from: https://www.transportenvironment.org/what-we-do/shipping-and-environment/arctic-shipping [state: 2020, April 01]

[5] Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, A.J. George; Williams, Timothy D.; Bertino, Laurent; Bergh, Jon (January 2017). On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice. accessed from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X16000038?via%3Dihub [state: 2020, April 03]

[6] Champine, R. D.; Morris, R. (n.d). The Hazards of Arctic Shipping. accessed from: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/map-shows-how-ships-navigate-melting-arctic-feature/ [state: 2020, April 05]

[7] Transport & Environment (2018, February 28). Fears for Arctic ecosystem as shipping milestone reached. accessed from: https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/fears-arctic-ecosystem-shipping-milestone-reached  [state: 2020, April 04]

[8] Wikipedia (2014, October 19). Arctic shipping routes (updated on: 2019, December 11). accessed from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shipping_routes [state: 2020, April 04]

[9] Wikipedia (2018, December 16). Environmental impact of shipping (updated on: 2020, March 31). accessed from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_shipping [state: 2020, April 04]

[10] Lawrence P. Hildebrand; Lawson W. Brigham; Tafsir M. Johansson (2018). Sustainable Shipping in a Changing Arctic. Cham, Switzerland: Springer

Media Attributions:

[11] NSIDC (2019, October 11). SOTC: Sea Ice. accessed from: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html  [state: 2020, April 03]

[12] IPCC (2019). IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Polar regions, Chapter 3.3. accessed from: https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/ [state: 2020, April 01]

[13] WNM (2019, June 07). Russia and China set up JV for year-round navigation along Northern Sea Route. accessed from: https://world-news-monitor.com/hotspots/2019/06/07/russia-and-china-set-up-jv-for-year-round-navigation-along-northern-sea-route/ [state: 2020, April 04]