Celine Leibundgut

Food is without a doubt an important basic need of humanity. Without food, we would no longer exist. That is why one of the Sustainable Development Goals is to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030 (United Nations, n.d.-a). But the number of people on earth continues to grow. Already today many people are suffering from famine for various reasons.  Humanity is faced with major questions of how to ensure food security and how to access food for future generations in the context of population growth.

Population growth and global hunger
Today the world population is estimated at 7.6 billion people. Every year, this number increases by about 83 million. With the knowledge of this data, 8.6 billion people in 2030, 9.8 billion people in 2050 and 11.2 billion people on earth are expected to be reached. (United Nations, 2017)

The fertility rate has decreased in almost all countries and regions of the world. Even in Africa, which has one of the highest fertility levels, the number of births per woman has fallen. In the period from 2000-2005, 5.1 children were born per woman and in the period from 2010-2015, only 4.7 babies were born per woman. Even if fertility rates are expected to decline, the world population will increase. (United Nations, 2017)

Most of the global population increase is due to a few countries. Half of the growth is expected to result from nine countries by 2050: Nigeria, India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Indonesia, Uganda and Pakistan. Nigeria is the country with the fastest growth rate among the ten largest countries in the world. Nigeria is currently the 7th largest country and according to forecasts, Nigeria will become the third-largest country, even ahead of the United States, by 2050. (United Nations, 2017)

Despite the slowly declining fertility rate in the group of the 47 least developed countries (LDCs), a large number of children are born there. As a result of these high birth rates, the population in the LDCs is growing with a rate of 2.4% per year. The situation is similar in Africa. In the period between 2017-2050, the population of 26 African countries will at least double in relation to its current size. (United Nations, 2017)

If the case above mentioned really happend, it would be tragic, because the majority of the hungry people already originate from developing countries, where 12.9 percent of people are already undernourished (United Nations, n.d.-a). Many people in these countries do not have enough to eat.

Expressed in facts: two thirds of the undernourished people live in two regions (in Sub-Saharan Africa 237 million and in Southern Asia 277 million people) and 149 million children under five years are chronically undernourished (United Nations, n.d.-a).

In 2015, it was estimated that about 784 million people were living in hunger (United Nations, n.d.-a). The hunger map of 2019 from the World Food Programme (figure 1) shows that in that year 821 million people, mainly from Africa, Asia, the Near East and Latin America, do not get enough to eat. That is more than 1 in 9 of today’s world population (WFP, 2019). The number of hungry people has risen very sharply by 37 million in only four years compared to 2015! Countries such as Chad, Zambia and Madagascar are especially affected by hunger. The map also shows that countries that are particularly affected by hunger are mainly countries which belong to the group of the least developed countries.

Figure 65.1 – Figure 1: Hunger Map 2019 from the World Food Programme (WFP, 2019)

By 2050, it is expected that 2 billion people could be added to the already high number of starving people (United Nations, n.d.-a). This is certainly also related to the fact that the population has grown by then.

Already today many adults and children are suffering from hunger. Without adequate measures to fight this hunger with profound changes in agriculture and food systems many more people will suffer from hunger. At the same time it is important to not exploit the natural resources. (United Nations, n.d.-a)

Improving food security
Food safety can be improved in a variety of ways: the demand for food production could be reduced, the intensity of food production could be increased, or general losses in food production and distribution could be avoided (Population matters, n.d.). Measures in these three areas could increase the ideal capacity to supply people with food and conserve natural resources. But it is always a combination of many measures because one alone is not enough.

There are several ways to increase food production. Simple ways are to produce more fields to grow more food like vegetables or corn. Also the use of genetically modified (GM) food could increase crop yields and extend the shelf life of food. In addition, GM plants can resist weather extremes such as drought and heat and could as a consequence increase the nutrient content of food. Nevertheless, the advantages and disadvantages of using GM plants in agriculture must always be taken into account. (Population matters, n.d.) Finally, advanced technologies, such as temperature and humidity sensors, robots, GPS technologies and aerial photography can be used to increase yield, but also to work in a more environmentally friendly way. Such various technologies can reduce the impact on natural ecosystems by using less water for irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides. (USDA, n.d.) All three of these measures can help increase food production, but there are certainly many more.

For a couple of reasons, large quantities of food are lost in the food production chain. This is a major problem because not only potential nutrients are wasted when food is lost but also labour, pesticides, seeds, fertilisers and a lot of water that was needed to produce them. Therefore, food losses not only lead to the loss of natural resources, but also to a loss of financial resources. (Population matters, n.d.) The traditional farming knowledge of many farmers could be expanded with new scientific knowledge and practices. This would minimise food losses in the production chain and increase the knowledge about productive food systems through sustainable water, nutrient, land, pest and soil management and the use of organic fertilisers. (United States, n.d.-b)

To reduce the demand for food, each person can contribute and help to fight against today’s and future’s world hunger. Little changes such as supporting local farmers or markets and making sustainable food choices, fighting against food waste or supporting good nutrition for all would be great ideas to start contributing. (United Nations, n.d.-a) For example, when you buy food every week, you should think about how much food you really need so that none of the groceries has to be thrown away. Because about 1/3 of the food produced worldwide is lost or thrown away (FAO, n.d.).

Globally, agricultural systems must become less wasteful and more productive. Sustainable food systems and sustainable agricultural practices that include both production and consumption must be considered from a holistic and integrated perspective. (United Nations, n.d.-b)

5 principles of sustainable agriculture by FAO
The following section shows five interrelated principles for sustainable agriculture, which have been developed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

According to approximations, food production must be increased from the current 8.4 million tons per year to almost 13.5 billion tons of food per year to be able to feed the entire population in 2050 and to support changing nutritional patterns. To ensure sustainability, social, economic and ecological dimensions must be treated equally to find good solutions. If one dimension is not considered, it jeopardizes the achievement of sustainability in other areas. In addition to the five principles below, 20 actions have been developed that integrate all three dimensions that can help countries build a world without hunger and a better future. Four examples of these actions are: Protect water and manage scarcity, Mainstream biodiversity conservation and protect ecosystem functions, Improve nutrition and promote balanced diets and build producers’ knowledge and develop their capacities. (FAO, 2020)

According to FAO, these Principles are (FAO, 2014):
Principle 1: ,,Improving efficiency in the use of resources is crucial to sustainable agriculture.’’
Principle 2: ,, Sustainability requires direct action to conserve, protect and enhance natural resources.’’
Principle 3: ,,Agriculture that fails to protect and improve rural livelihoods, equity  and social well-being is unsustainable.’’
Principle 4: ,,Enhanced resilience of people, communities and ecosystems is key to sustainable agriculture.’’
Principle 5: ,,Sustainable food and agriculture requires responsible and effective governance mechanisms.’’

The following picture shows where the principles are applied, either in the human system, natural system or in agriculture.

Figure 65.2 – Figure 2: Application of the vision and the five principles of sustainable agriculture (FAO, 2014 Page 18 and 19)

The first principle states that the productivity of many agricultural and food production systems can be improved by changing existing practices. The productivity of food production must be increased so that there is enough food available. At the same time, the environment must be protected. Production systems that use water and energy efficiently are becoming increasingly important, as well as finding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. (FAO, 2020)

The second principle builds on the first. Natural resources are very important in food and agricultural production and therefore the sustainability of production depends on the sustainability of resources.  Sustainable agriculture should preserve biodiversity in crops, protect water and soil and conserve natural resources. (FAO, 2020)

Only if those who farm provide decent working conditions in a physically and economically safe and healthy environment, agriculture can become sustainable. Furthermore, adequate access to production resources for producers must be guaranteed. This is what principle three says. (FAO, 2020)

Principle four: Agricultural stability can be disrupted by extreme weather events, unrest or market volatility. A variety of practices and technologies that help increase producers resilience to such disturbances can contribute to sustainable agriculture. (FAO, 2020)

The last principle is about that sustainable production can only be achieved, if there is a balance between public and private sector initiatives, as well as justice, transparency, the rule of law and accountability (FAO, 2020).

These five principles and the 20 actions can help to move towards a sustainable agriculture all over the world. The famine could be counteracted with such measures. Looking ahead to the future, when more people will live on this planet, sustainable agriculture can certainly help to minimise or even eliminate hunger. Sustainable agriculture also helps nature by ensuring that resources are not exploited, soil degradation should not occur and biodiversity is preserved.

Conclusion
The question of how to feed the world in the future taking into account population growth is not easy to answer. Already today there are many regions and countries, especially the least developed countries, where hunger is a major issue. In 2019 about 821 million people do not get enough to eat (WPF, 2019). By 2050, it is expected that 2 billion people could be added to the already high number of starving people (United Nations, n.d.-a).

There are many suggestions and principles about how to improve food security and also to save resources for future generations in such a way that they have equal access to them. The demand for food production can be reduced, the intensity of food production can be increased, or general losses in food production and distribution can be avoided (Population matters, n.d.). Beside sustainable agriculture, for example, according to the FAO’s principles for sustainable agriculture, also each individual can do something to ensure food security in the future, such as preventing food waste.

In my opinion, the solution is how to feed the world for many years to come, a combination of all the above-mentioned measures can help to prevent future resource exploitation, loss of biodiversity and increase food security.

References
FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization oft he United States. (2014). Zugriff am 16. April 2020. Abgerufen von: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3940e.pdf

FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States. (2020). Sustainable Food and Agriculture. Zugriff am 16. April 2020. Abgerufen von: http://www.fao.org/sustainability/background/the-vision/en/

FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of  the United States. (n.d.). Food Loss and Food Waste. Zugriff am 17. April 2020. Abgerufen von: http://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/en/

Population matters. (n.d.). Population and food security. Zugriff am 15. April 2020. Abgerufen von: https://populationmatters.org/sites/default/files/population-and-food-security.pdf

United Nations. (2017). World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. Zugriff am: 14. April 2020. Abgerufen von: https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html

United Nations. (n.d.-a). Goal 2: Zero Hunger. Zugriff am 13. April 2020. Abgerufen von: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/

United Nations – sustainable development goals platform (n.d.-b). Food security and nutrition and sustainable agriculture. Zugriff am 14. April 2020. Abgerufen von: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/foodagriculture

USDA – United States Departement of Agriculture. (n.d.). Agriculture Technology. Zugriff am 15. April 2020. Abgerufen von: https://nifa.usda.gov/topic/agriculture-technology

WFP – World Food Programme. (2019, August 14). 2019 – Hunger Map | World Food Programme. Zugriff am 13. April 2020. Abgerufen von: https://www.wfp.org/publications/2019-hunger-map