Pre-reading tasks

British economist John Maynard Keynes (1883- 1946) predicted technology would likely cause widespread unemployment because the labour savings from technology were happening faster than we could find new jobs for workers. His focus wasn’t computers. but rather steam and electric engines taking over work that previously required human involvement. Were his predictions realistic?

Task A

In 1900, an American railroad engineer wrote predictions for the year 2000. Have any of these predictions come true? Discuss each one with a partner and then in a group.

PREDICTION 1: Cars will disappear from large cities with all traffic either below or high above the ground, eliminating noise pollution.

PREDICTION N 2: Cars will be operated by a half-kilo motor that will be cheaper than a horse and twice as powerful.

PREDICTION 3: Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance and published in newspapers an hour later.

Task B

Make predictions for these areas for the year 2030

Task C

While you read try to highlight the writer’s points of view as outlined in the reading skills section

20.3 – Half of all jobs today will disappear by 2030.

Building a long-lasting career means at least thinking about what might be ahead in the next ten to twenty years. So what lies ahead? A good question. We checked with the work of futurists, career experts and technologists to see what might happen. Some of what they envision is downright scary; some of their predictions might give you hope. But any and all of them should at least get you thinking about what you should do in the near- and mid-term future.

1. 1. Half of all jobs today will disappear by 2030.

Futurist Thomas Frey says that the world of work is going to turn upside down as two billion jobs- half of all employment on the planet today- will be gone by 2030.

Why: This prediction hinges on massive change happening in some major industries. In the power industry alone, moving to renewable energy and decentralized power generation will mean many job demands in areas like coal and ethanol production, overhead power line maintenance, power plants and even railroad transportation ( to haul the fuel)  will drop significantly. Self-driving cars, already a technical reality, could put a lot of taxi, bus, limousine and delivery drivers out of business. Manufacturing and retail jobs could take big hits as 3D printing eventually lets consumers make many products at home without the need to buy from a store.

The opportunities: There will be new areas of hiring. Corporations and communities will run their own power facilities and need skilled workers. Replacing the national grid will create jobs in construction and in recycling. Solar, wind, geothermal and other alternative energy systems will need installation crews. People will have to design 3D products, repair printers and sell the manufacturing “ink” they use.

               3 Some good-paying professions will be begging for job applicants.

Why: One irony of the future is that there will be plenty of good jobs that go begging for applicants because young people often have limited views of what job opportunities to pursue. A recent UK survey of thirteen- to sixteen-year-olds by the non-profit Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development showed that their career aspirations had “nothing in common ” with what job markets will want in the future. They will struggle to compete in areas and, by their choices, make getting a job ridiculously harder for many. More than a third of the teenagers interviewed were only interested  in one of ten different careers: “teacher, lawyer, accountant, actor, police, IT consultant, doctor, sportsperson, army/navy/air force/firefighter and psychologist.” The interests of half of all respondents fell into only three of twenty-five different sectors.

The opportunity: When you consider the takeover of new technologies, remember that someone still has to be able to open a lock, fix a leak and install a new circuit to charge your new high-tech domestic help.